Tuesday, October 6, 2009

And time goes away and the world with it.

'The sun is but a morning star.'
Henry David Thoreau

At this critical moment in economic history, we see an incredible scenario unfolding. OPEC is now an established power in economic affairs. Their pricing and market strategy will not allow unrestrained growth. If the economy grows, their price will spike causing both inflation and a consequent rise in interest rates will choke off continued growth. We have seen their strategy in action and it has stopped the industrial world in its tracks twice. It is a fact.
Growth and innovation go hand in hand. Easy money feeding innovation causes growth. However with growth off the table, innovation continues as a function of investing opportunity cost. Stability puts a premium on the sort of risk opportunities which characterize entrepreneurs and innovation, however the implementation of that innovation with low growth and the technology that is coming into existence becomes both more difficult and more costly in its social effects.
So we are now looking at high structural unemployment, high rates of innovation and a steady rise in productivity. And these parameters are so unusual and so beyond the reach of the paradigms that exist today that we will have to, and are actually in the process of development of, a new economic paradigm.
It is a critical moment in world history, whether one views that as a grand narrative or a picaresque memoir. It is one for the books.
Do well and be well.
'Chances Basil Brylcreem' on Amazon.com/books

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