Wednesday, April 27, 2011

The Innovation Cycle

The Schumpeterian cycle, the innovation cycle, consists of innovative industrial processes that in simple terms destroy jobs and occupations and replace those jobs and occupations with different ones.
The fundamental failure of interpretation of Schumpeter's work as documented in the historical record of industrialism is the notion that pervades theories of entrepreneurship that innovation creates more jobs. There is no theoretical basis for this idea. Innovation creates different jobs not necessarily more jobs. We may actually find this out over the next ten years.
Certainly increased productivity means more profits which imply more discretionary income which can lead to increased consumption and more jobs. The question possibly being answered is whether there is a direct correlation between increased profits, discretionary spending, consumption, and jobs. The contraindications are reinvestment as indicated in a very robust stock market, a slightly lagging retail market which is tending to move upscale, and online retailing which is technologically, not labor, intensive.
If we are at a tipping point in the innovation cycle, jobs and occupations will not be replaced. This question and its answer should be the focus of of our attention over the next ten years and if a tipping point is indicated then our focus must be on the kind of society in which we wish to live.
Be well and do good.

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