Saturday, April 23, 2011

Real Estate, Post-Industrialism, and the Schumpeterian Cycle

First of all, real estate is not an 'industry' as the word is understood in the value-added socioeconomy. Real estate is an art auction where true art is dear and bids entertained and no more an industry than Dali at his marketing best. It is, simply put, how industrialism shares the wealth and that is all it is.
People who are participating in the value-added socioeconomy need a roof over their heads certainly. That is a part of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, but the real estate market, for all its fundamental neccessity, is derivative of and incidental to the operations of that economy. Real estate is how industrialism shares the wealth and that is that.
Post-Industrialism, the most ill-thought and technologically delirious philosophy ever created, is the model that informs these late stages of modernism and affects, or infects, current models of postmodernism. It is no more than an abstract conservation of a theme park society without a thought given, at all, absolutely, to where one gets the money to pay for all those wonderful rides.The Schumpeterian cycle is the cycle of innovation and creative destruction that has been well documented in the history of industrialism. We are in a massive one of those cycles which promises productivity increases of 6% to 7%. We are also at the limits of incidental transfer of wealth, the magic hand of Post-Industrialism. There is a natural Schumpeterian limit on how much wealth can be transferred without impeding innovation.
We are going to learn some very hard lessons over the next ten years as unemployment hovers near 7%, the housing market remains moribund, and productivity soars. It is in the American character to learn hard lessons. It is the way of pragmatism. At some point we are going to have to recognize that society can only endure so much innovation without serious damage to the social fabric, that the innocent number used to represent the unemployment rate also represents human beings' lives being destroyed, that Post-Industrialism is no more than a blinding visit from Prometheus, filling our hearts with blind, and groundless, hope and that speculating in real estate is like speculating in art.
Be well and do good.

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