Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Unemployment and Real Estate

Unemployment is at 9% and has been high for years. The housing market is being made on oversupply of existing homes and decreasing prices. The relationship is clear. The situation, as a monolithic market, will remain in this dynamic until unemployment drops into the 5% range.
Anything over 6% unemployment constitutes a rolling recession. The term has been used before. A rolling recession is no more than creative destruction at work. So the net effect of the last 4 years is a severe general recession followed by a rolling recession. This, given the technology being implemented, could last the next ten years.
While the pattern is a natural innovation cycle, I cannot help but think that it is being made worse by the pyramidal effect of the machinations of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac in the housing market. I cannot prove that but I have a sneaking hunch that it's true.
Be well and do good.

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